One of the most rewarding things we can do is think ahead, imagining the possible futures that could result from the choices we make today in order to make better choices, and therefore better futures. This isn’t easy, but we sure do like to do it–especially if there’s money involved. You’ve probably heard about “prediction markets”, which are effectively just people gambling on world events; people who engage in this claim that it isn’t gambling because there’s little chance involved (and the fact that there have been so many incidences of clear insider trading certainly supports that claim!). The point is that there’s a difference between guessing what will happen and determining which of the many possible futures are the most likely. There’s a whole field called Futures Thinking, and I’ve had a bit of training in it. I’ve learned the importance of thinking carefully and intentionally about the future, how to identify trends that will shape the future, and how to distinguish between possible, probable, and preferred futures.
Identifying trends that will shape the future can be incredibly challenging. For example, when I was in high school the best career advice that was given to me was to take math classes and learn to code; had I pursued an education in tech I would be watching the bottom fall out of my industry right now, as computer engineers are being laid off by the thousands. Forecasting gets harder and harder the farther out you look, and some trends (such as the development of new technologies) can rapidly change everything. But the point is that we would all be better off spending more time thinking about what our future could look like.
One Sure Thing
One trend that is a sure thing is that we’re all getting older. It’s a difficult topic that makes many of us uncomfortable, but it’s guaranteed that we will all experience physical and mental decline, and eventually, death. We’ve taken great strides to extend human life, which is good, though sometimes I wonder if those steps were taken because of our discomfort as much as anything else. There is a growing awareness that we need to understand and even embrace death as a natural part of life, and there’s a growing field of end of life doulas trained to help people through this last, difficult stage. Use of hospices is increasing, and medical directives and medical assistance in dying, while controversial, are being used at a massive scale. (This recent podcast episode really covers this topic well.)
But aside from our personal level of comfort with the idea that we will one day die, we must also acknowledge the impact this has on the people around us. I was trained as a Seniors’ Real Estate Specialist to recognize the many needs of people who are aging, and the ways that those needs impact their move. Many real estate transactions begin with someone passing away, or moving into long-term care or hospital or hospice; downsizing services help people sort through a lifetime’s worth of accumulated belongings, each one with its own memories; accessibility features in a home become increasingly important as a person’s mobility declines; and so on. Outside of my professional experience, I’m still aware of many other aspects of aging and death: medical needs and expenditures go up, legal matters of estates and inheritances, and then that other guarantee of life: taxes.
Thinking about all of these things in advance is difficult for us as individuals. Thinking about it for an entire community–and especially a community like Brighton, where over 50% of the population is over 50–is a requirement of leadership.
Asking the Right Questions About Aging
Problem solving begins by asking good questions, and when we’re considering an issue from a municipal or community perspective rather than an individual or societal perspective, our questions become more refined. We aren’t just asking about what happens when this happens to me, and we aren’t necessarily thinking about what happens when it happens to an entire generation (and the biggest generation in history, no less!), though those questions are relevant. We’re asking specifically how this will affect Brighton, which makes the questions fairly concrete. Things like:
- Is there sufficient housing stock in Brighton with accessibility features? Will people be able to age in place, or will they need to move to Long Term Care facilities?
- Are there enough Long Term Care facilities? What alternatives are there?
- Do we have adequate access to primary care physicians? (We know the answer is no, but we’re getting there!) Hospitals? Hospices?
- In the near to medium term we can expect that a significant portion of our population will be over 80, a time of life when it is common for people to stop driving, either by choice or as a result of failing a driver’s test; are there alternatives to driving in our community? How will residents get around Brighton if they can’t drive?
- Are our municipal buildings accessible to people with mobility challenges? Do we have recreation facilities or programs that are suitable for seniors? Are our staff trained to support residents with physical disabilities, cognitive decline, or other challenges?
- How might we prepare for the inevitable passing of the Baby Boomer generation? Will the homes, services, and facilities built to support the largest cohort with the longest lifespan in history be able to be repurposed for use by others 20+ years from now?
- What will succession look like in Brighton? For properties? For businesses? For farms? What will happen when 2/3 of existing farmers retire over the next decade, most of whom do not have succession plans for their land and business?
- If people moved to Brighton to retire, and their estates are eventually passed on to heirs who live elsewhere, what does the Great Wealth Transfer mean for our local economy? Does being a “retirement town” make us economically vulnerable?
We could go on and on, and all of these questions are relevant and highly important. We already have answers for some of them: we know that physician recruitment is critically important, which is why we have partnered together with Northumberland County and our fellow lower-tier municipalities to support a recruitment program. We know that hospitals are increasingly important, which is why we’ve increased our support for Trenton Memorial Hospital.
We also need to know the boundaries on our ability to address these issues, because none of them are strictly municipal issues. For example, healthcare is provincially managed and funded, and yet we find ourselves spending hundreds of thousands of dollars municipally every year on support for primary care physicians and hospitals. Housing accessibility and affordability is increasingly being addressed by all levels of government, and knowing our specific role in it is as crucial as understanding how it affects seniors in particular.
We also know that sometimes issues at other levels of government can actually make things worse for our local residents. As one example, the federal government’s Old Age Security program is the single largest line item in the federal budget, but it is designed in such a way as to increase economic inequality among seniors rather than reduce inequality: while some seniors without adequate pensions are living in poverty, and the fastest growing homeless population in Canada are seniors, the clawback for OAS payments is $185,000 in annual household income, meaning that people with six-figure incomes are getting the same OAS payments as people who are barely surviving. I get letters from local seniors asking for tax relief, or a rebate on water and wastewater rates, but I know that many of our residents are quite wealthy and we have no mechanism locally for distinguishing between them. Lowering the income cutoff for OAS would allow the feds to give more money to seniors in need, and would remove the pressure on municipalities to create rebate programs to address poverty.
Thinking Ahead in the Coming Term
Council will soon be participating in a workshop with Urban Strategies, Inc to begin the process of designing the newest neighbourhood in Brighton on municipally-owned land. We’ve bought this land because we recognize the challenges of the current moment and for the future of our housing sector, demographic changes, climate change, and more. The goal is to build a neighbourhood full of things that our community needs, but that are not being provided by the invisible hand of the market: affordable and accessible housing, perhaps through alternative ownership models like co-ops, perhaps through alternative building styles like modular homes, apartments, or even tiny homes. Developments that prioritize community benefit over market value: sustainability, walkability, mixed-use developments (commercial and residential together), more integration with nature, more access to transit, etc. We’re just beginning the process of imagining what that should look like, and that imagining needs to include not just the needs and interests of today, but those of fifty years from now, or more. Just like that zag in Main Street, a neighbourhood we design will be here in one way or another for generations, so we need to spend the time it takes to get it right.
While this project begins during this term of council, it will still be in early stages when a new council is formed after the October 26th election. But this won’t be the only futures thinking a new council will need to do: each term, council prepares a Strategic Plan to determine priorities for the coming term. This document is perhaps the most important thing that council does, because every staff report and operation relates back to it somehow. While we can and should revisit it mid-term to update it, most of the futures thinking we do is front-loaded.
I want to stress that this is not just an exercise for council. There are many opportunities for your input into the Strategic Plan, and it’s probably the most consequential thing you can do for your community.
In the meantime, spend some time thinking about the future. And when you evaluate your candidates for the election this fall, look for signs that they’re thinking about our future; we need a council that’s preparing for it.